Uganda 2025/26 Robusta Fly Crop: Slight Gains & Farmer Confidence

This article at a glance: 

• The current Robusta fly crop is slightly larger and better than last year, with stable quality. 
• Harvesting has begun in central and eastern Uganda and will continue through mid-January. 
• Shifting dynamics, including upcoming political elections, new EUDR regulations and changing farm practices could shape outcomes into 2026. 

Early Harvest Outlook: Slightly Larger, Stable Quality 
Uganda’s 2025/26 Robusta fly crop is well underway, and early field feedback paints a modestly optimistic picture. Farmers surveyed across major producing regions report that this season’s fly crop is slightly larger than last year’s, says Raymond, with no evident quality risks. The bulk of activity is currently centered in the Central East and Eastern regions, where cherries are already being picked, sorted, and dried. Quality expectations remain stable, and we anticipate clean, consistent lots. 

Harvest Timing and Regional Progress 
Picking has begun across several regions, with Busoga and the Central East most advanced in both harvesting and drying. Activity in the Southwest and Masaka is also ramping up and is expected to intensify through December with farmers harvesting into mid or late January. The main harvest – which carries the heaviest weight in national output – is expected from April through August 2026, barring disruptions from unexpected weather patterns. So far, climatic conditions remain normal. 

While the fly crop shows a slight improvement over last year, a full assessment of Uganda’s annual production will depend on the 2026 main crop evaluation (starting March). For now, indications suggest steady progress and healthy field dynamics, aligning with Uganda’s broader upward trajectory in Robusta performance. 

Quality and Growing Practices 

Quality risks remain minimal for this harvest, with no significant concerns reported from the field. Perhaps more encouraging is a noticeable shift in farmer mindset toward increased agricultural investment. Raymond reports that our teams have observed growing interest in fertilizer application, gap filling*, and increasing tree density, all practices that could boost future yields. 

"We're seeing a general mindset shift and change towards investing in the farms," Raymond notes, pointing to comments from both farmers and field teams as evidence of this positive trend. 

Regulatory and Market Factors 

Several significant changes are reshaping Uganda's coffee landscape. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority was reallocated earlier this year to operate under the Ministry of Agriculture – a structural change that may have limited operational impact but represents an important shift in oversight. Some internal stakeholders view it as part of broader governmental efforts to harmonize agricultural management and export efficiency, but it’s too early to tell. 

More pressing are upcoming political developments. Uganda will hold general and presidential elections in mid-January 2026, which could potentially affect export and production pace during a critical harvest period. Historically, election periods can cause mild slowdowns in export logistics, though the long-term impacts are often short-lived. 

The industry is also grappling with new European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requirements. While many stakeholders are still determining the full implications for trade and sourcing operations, Sucafina is already offering EUDR-compliant Robusta and Arabica lots, and we are confident about supply chain continuity. 

Growing Economic Impact  

The Ugandan coffee sector's economic importance continues to grow. In the 2024/2025 financial year, Uganda exported a record 7.7 million bags of coffee, totaling about 462,000 tonnes, according to various reports. This represented a 25% increase in volume compared to the previous year, reflecting the country’s clearly central and growing position in global coffee markets. 

Coffee’s value to the wider economy is also buoyant. Driven in part by the current high coffee prices, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, total coffee export value surged from $1.4 billion to $2.3 billion, representing impressive 64% year-on-year growth. 

As Uganda's coffee industry navigates these regulatory changes and market dynamics, the slightly improved harvest volume combined with evolving farming practices suggests a sector poised for continued growth, provided political transitions and international regulations don't disrupt the momentum. 

^{*Gap Filling is planting a coffee tree to replace one that's been non-productive or making additional plantings between productive trees.}