NCA Tampa 2026 Recap

Last year’s NCA in Houston wore its headline on its sleeve: “Everything’s Bigger in Texas” – and 2025 delivered accordingly, with record prices, inverted spreads and a tariff conversation that followed everyone home. The 2026 NCA could have been named “Everything’s Tempered in Tampa”. With the emerald tones of the Garrison Channel framing the hotel lobby and visions of palms and bikinis from the lobby area, this year’s convention just seemed lighter.  Call it shock or being jaded, but roasters just seemed mostly unbothered and put on a brave face to whatever may be in store.   

The big story was Brazil, with many conversations held, but few conclusions made in the short term, and with most industry players preferring to take a wait and see attitude to the challenges looming on the coffee horizon (Middle East conflict, anyone?).  The main takeaways were: 

The Long View: Bearish by Q4 2026 

The dominant mood looking further out was quietly optimistic – or at least, less anxious. Strong crop prospects in Brazil and healthy carry stocks moving into the next season pointed toward a market with more supply than it has seen in a while. The consensus was that the tighter, more stressful conditions of the past two years would likely ease as we move deeper into 2026 and into 2027. Translation: Lower flat prices later – but don’t set your alarm just yet. 

The Near Term: Tight, Nervous, Not Quite Bullish 

The mood around the near term was harder to read. The room didn’t feel “bullish,” it felt pensive. Physical supply closer to hand remains somewhat constrained, and the sense was that nearby coffee hadn’t fully loosened up yet. Rallies, when they come, are expected to be capped by origin selling that is ready and waiting. The market, in other words, knows its ceiling – it just hasn’t quite decided what floor it wants to stand on.  

Logistics: Ships Go the Long Way, Bills Go the High Way 

Geopolitics doesn’t block coffee – but it does detour it. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to reroute vessels the long way around, adding days to transit times and meaningful costs to landed prices, particularly into northern Europe. For roasters planning their coverage, the practical effect is that coffee already sitting closer to market feels a lot more attractive than it might have a year ago. It’s expensive coffee, but it’s where it needs to be when it needs to be. 

Brazil, Basis & Backbone: Producers Aren’t Blinking 

Brazilian producers are holding firm. Despite a big crop on the way, there’s no rush to sell – internal demand, existing short positions and a healthy sense of self-confidence have kept the market from cracking even as futures have softened. Forward sales at reasonable levels? Some. Urgency to move nearby volume? Not much. The standoff between new-crop expectations and old-crop reality is a defining dynamic heading into the second half of the year. 

The lobby bar version: the market tried a staring contest with Brazil. Brazil ordered another round. 

Producer Psychology: The 20-Cent Ghost 

Perhaps the most candid conversations in Tampa weren’t about price levels at all – they were about mindset. Many opined that Brazilian producers seem to remain anchored to what could’ve been, not just what is – the ephemeral (phantasmic?) 30 cents of yesterday’s market? While frustrating to some, it’s rational and it matters. If producers are anchored to potential upside rather than current prices, aggressive nearby selling won’t materialize just because the market thinks it should. 

Cocoa déjà vu? Plenty drew parallels to last year’s cocoa farmer regret arc. Counterpoint: Coffee producers exported record value over the past year. They may simply feel they’ve earned the right to be patient. 

Demand: Softer, but Stubbornly There 

Roasters reported slightly lower volumes, but better than feared – “resilient” was the word of the week. For futures, that resilience doesn’t outweigh the massive supply pivot looming… except near term if physical coverage runs thinner than assumed. 

The Mood, in Closing 

What Tampa didn’t feel like was 2025. There was no collective white knuckling, no shared sense that the floor might give way at any moment. The challenges ahead – a softening market, logistics costs that haven’t fully normalized, producers who won’t be rushed – are real, but they feel manageable. The industry arrived in Tampa a little tired, and left feeling, if not exactly confident, at least steadier. 

And yes: all roads still lead to Brazil. The near-term path is tight and a little unpredictable. The longer road looks calmer. Most people are just watching carefully – and trying not to trip. 

 What to Remember (so you sound brilliant in 30 seconds)  

• All roads lead to Brazil. The long road looks bearish (Q4 onward). 
• Near term feels tight –  spreads matter more than outright. 
• Certs may draw as logistics slow and coverage gaps peek through. 
• Producers are patient (and a little priceanchored) 
• Demand is resilient, but the big story is supply arriving later. 
• Decoupling dream (spreads up, flat meh) is neat – history and quants may rain on it. 

^{Maria Patricia Somarriba 
Green Coffee Trader, Sucafina North America} 

^{Maria Patricia Somarriba – known to many in the trade as MAPA – built her career where coffee truly begins: at origin. She’s spent years across producing countries, walking farms, working alongside mills, cupping with producers and negotiating deals long before the beans are ready to ship. That experience on the ground, combined with the structure and discipline of the trading world, shapes her commitment to fair, thoughtful business at every step.} 

^{MAPA navigates the coffee industry’s shifting landscape – from logistics headaches to market swings –with a mix of expertise, patience and humor. She believes every lot carries the story of the people and land behind it, and she works to make sure that story is respected from origin to trading desk.} 

^{Maria lives and works in her hometown of Miami. She’s married to an Italian and is the proud mother of three accomplished daughters. Every day, she tries to leave the world just a little better than she found it.}