2026 SCTA Dinner Recap

This year’s SCTA Coffee Forum and Dinner had a different tune compared to the last few – not least because it took place for the first time in Montreux, the iconic city of jazz. Maybe it was the postcard views from the conference rooms, or maybe everyone was very lucky at the casino – regardless of the cause, everyone seemed to be in exceptionally high spirits. This is a marked difference compared to the last two SCTA Forums, which were dogged by EUDR switcheroos, record-breaking prices and Brazil crop fears.  

On Everyone’s Mind...

For the first time in two years, I get to say that something other than EUDR was the hot topic of the event. Instead, one of the main topics was literally heat – El Niño and it’s potential impacts were a frequent point of discussion. There is no question that Niño will affect coffee production globally, though we can all debate on how big that effect will be – and for how long it will last. If you want to hear more about Sucafina’s view on Niño, check out RobustaRhyme’s new chart-topper. If you’re not much of a music fan, let me sum it up for you: timing is everything. If the surplus we have coming in the current season outweighs the damage to the crop, the market should absorb the shock. Next crop’s damage, however, remains to be seen (and predicted).  

Unfortunately, I don’t have a catchy song to share about certified stock views. There is little consensus regarding what the exchange will see coming against December, with estimates ranging from nearly nothing to over 500k bags. Considering the Z/H* (as of today’s writing), it seems safe to say that general sentiment is towards the lower end of the range. But anything is possible, and it’s likely the market won’t have a clear view until much closer to the end of the year.  

Demand 

In consuming countries, demand is reported to remain on the uptrend despite high prices. MENA and China especially are playing a big part in this growth, but Europe is also on the uptick, and the expectation seems to be that it will remain this way.  

European roasters are continuously looking to expand their quality baskets, especially in the face of tight supply and elevated differentials in Colombia and Central America. East Africa is increasingly attractive as a supplier of milds for roasters with sourcing flexibility – quality is comparable (some say better!), prices have been more competitive, and the availability has allowed roasters to fill any sourcing gaps they might have between the end of Peru and the beginning of CAM harvests.  Uganda was the certainly the star of our S&D report, with buyer interest tracking the country's rising production and exports growing year on year.  

Supply 

At destination, coffee supply remains tight. But the end may be near, considering healthy shipments from Brazil, especially. Though the trade may have differed on their view of El Niño or certified stocks, almost everyone seemed to be aligned on Brazil crop expectations for the 26/27 season. After years of struggling to overcome the effects of the 2021 frost, the surplus now upon us is a refreshing and welcome new reality.  

For Sucafina, this year’s SCTA was another great chance to gather our global team and our industry partners. We were happy to host another successful party, and to sponsor the 4th annual SCTA Next Gen Sustainability Contest. And we dealt out plenty of our Sucafina-themed decks of cards – if you didn’t get a pack, make sure to visit us next year. If you did, we expect to see big wins on the casino floor in Montreux 2027!  

* Z/H denotes the December/March spread for the KC  (or 'C') Market. 

_{Jamie is a New Jersey expat currently located in Geneva. She has been with Sucafina since 2021 and works on the green coffee desk with clients primarily from Central and Northern Europe. She holds a master’s degree in commodity trading from the University of Geneva, and is currently an SCTA Next Gen Council Member.}