2025 SCTA Recap by Jamie White

Last year, I started this recap with the following two lines: “This was definitely an interesting SCTA for everyone, as the news of a potential European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) delay came right as most were arriving in Basel. The industry was also on edge waiting for news of rains in Brazil, and there was a weariness that has become somewhat commonplace due to the current price environment.” I could have probably copy and pasted that, without admission of self-plagiarism, and carried on my recap of this year, without raising much suspicion!

On Everyone’s Mind.....

Unsurprisingly, EUDR was again a hot topic of discussion this year, along with its American cousin – tariffs. Though the consensus was that we should continue to proceed as if EUDR is indeed coming into force, enforcement is widely accepted as delayed. For many, a second postponement is akin to a death knell for the legislation.

The view on tariffs was less conclusive. Some say they're coming, others say they'll never make it through the Supreme Court. One person says tariffs will be bullish, the other says they will be bearish. All have eyes on Brazil, hoping for more than just another hug between Presidents Trump and Lula.

Most other topics discussed went the way of the tariff discussion – without much consensus. Perspective on Brazil rains varies. At Sucafina, we see favorable conditions on the horizon, though we’ll wait along with the rest of the market to celebrate, lest we all have to put the cork back into the bottle. Brazil was also the subject of debate regarding current state and progression of flowering, anticipated crop numbers and viable replacement options in the case of tariffs.

Demand

Demand figures are all over the place – are global growth predictions skewed by the lengthening of the logistics pipeline? Or perhaps growing demand on the Asian continent? Can those factors cancel out the effects of already increased prices on the shelves, along with the ones that are potentially coming with tariffs? Do they override the decrease in demand that roasters see in especially price-sensitive markets, such as Eastern Europe? It's unlikely we will have any of these answers soon (remind me to double check them on next year's recap).

So much of the worry that currently plagues the market is out of our direct control, and times have never been so uncertain. It may be easy to predict how one factor could affect the market in a vacuum, but put all together – who knows? Focus remains on management of risk and volatility and creating as much stability as feasible in the current environment. Despite all this, the outlook is cautiously optimistic going into the new year. The weather premium in the market is likely to be removed, arabica surplus is expected and demand is generally regarded as resilient. It would be nice to start this recap with a cheerier sentiment next year!

For Sucafina, this year’s SCTA was another great chance to gather our global team and our industry partners. We were happy to host a successful party and to sponsor the 3rd annual SCTA Next Gen Sustainability Contest. And we saw more than a few people walking around with a Sucafina tote bag – if you didn’t get one this year, make sure to visit us next year in Montreux! We’ll be happy to see you!

_{Jamie is a New Jersey expat currently located in Geneva. She has been with Sucafina since 2021 and works on the green coffee desk with clients primarily from Central and Northern Europe. She holds a master’s degree in commodity trading from the University of Geneva, and is currently an SCTA Next Gen Council Member.}