From the Field, News

Monday, December 16, 2024

Central America and Mexico 2024 Harvest Update

As the 2024/25 harvest starts across Central America and Mexico, we reached out to Oscar Fernando Hurtado, Research Manager of the Americas, and Luis Fernando Esteves Joaquim, Commercial Director of Central America, Mexico and Peru (CAMP), to get their insights on what to expect for the upcoming Arabica and Robusta harvests in the region as well as their thoughts on the 2023/24 cycle.

As the 2024/25 harvest starts across Central America and Mexico, we reached out to Oscar Fernando Hurtado, Research Manager of the Americas, and Luis Fernando Esteves Joaquim, Commercial Director of Central America, Mexico and Peru (CAMP), to get their insights on what to expect for the upcoming Arabica and Robusta harvests in the region as well as their thoughts on the 2023/24 cycle.  

Here’s a quick summary of their insights:  

  • We expect a harvest of around 17 million bags across the whole region, 1% lower than in the previous year. Quality, however, is expected to be higher.  
  • The harvest is delayed due to two main reasons. First, an extended drought in most of the region from January to mid-June, accompanied by intense heat waves in May, negatively impacted flowerings, especially the early events. Second, excessive rainfall since July, including during November due to Tropical Storm Sara, has delayed the maturation process. 

 What to Expect for the 2024/25 Harvest?   

 The coffee harvest will kick off soon in the Central America and Mexico (CAM) region. The 2024/25 harvest is delayed due to late flowering as well as the influence of Tropical Storm Sara, which brought abundant rains in November. We expect the flow of coffee to improve during the second half of December, with a significant peak between January and February, followed by a drop in March and ending in April. 

Compared to the previous harvest, 2024/25 crop is expected to be 1% lower in the region, with Honduras and Guatemala experiencing larger reductions. The total combined crop for all Central America and Mexico is projected to reach just 17m bags, marking a new nine-year low. These reductions are primarily due to the drought that affected the first half of 2024, which impacted flowering in key areas in Honduras and Guatemala. However, there are optimistic projections in Mexico (though certain areas in Chiapas were impacted, the overall outlook for the country shows growth, compared to the past crop), as well for Nicaragua and Costa Rica. 

Oscar Fernando reports that the quality is expected to be better, due to low reports Coffee Berry Borer and Coffee Leaf Rust. Additionally, there were favorable rains since the second half of June that contributed to good cherry development.  

Luis Fernando reports that some non-weather-related factors could still impact the harvest. Migration, a big issue in the region, is one of them. “The availability of pickers is lower and the growth of remittances in countries such as Guatemala and Honduras further limits the supply of labor,” he mentions, noting that migration flows have great significance for labor availability. January will be the most critical month, as this is when the harvest is expected to peak across the entire CAM region, and these countries will need a higher number of pickers simultaneously 

In Mexico, the labor shortages are a concern. Chiapas, the biggest and most important coffee region in the country, has experienced escalating violence driven by cartel activity. The situation affects the availability of pickers, as they can’t reach certain areas due to conflicts and lack of security in the region. It’s important to mention that this situation is isolated to Chiapas, as for now, we don’t see any security issues in other producing regions.  

A Quick Robusta Update  

Oscar Fernando explained that Robusta production in the CAM region is expected to decrease this season compared to last year (-17.7%). This decline is mainly due to a severe dry spell during the first semester of the year and heat waves that impacted production in Mexico, the region’s largest Robusta producer. The Robusta crop cycle comes earlier, compared to Arabica, which has resulted in a prolonged period of stress, affecting the expected yield.  

Despite the production volume challenges, cherries are already ripe, and the Robusta harvest is expected to peak during December/January. This year, the estimated volume for Mexico is 905K bags; 70K bags are expected from Guatemala. Nicaragua is projected to contribute less than 5% of the region’s total Robusta volume, although no specific estimate is available.  

Nicaragua and Guatemala continue with marginal production compared to the size of their total production. In Guatemala, the local coffee institute, Anacafé, is working to promote the expansion of Robusta acreage in lower altitude areas. Luis Fernando explains that this effort could boost the country’s production of Robusta in the medium term. 

Other Challenges and Efforts in the Region 

Producer groups in the CAM region have focused throughout 2024 on strategies to adapt to the new EUDR regulations, becoming one of the region’s biggest challenges this year. “Systems in implementation are not standardized and there are still details to fine tune as we move into 2025,” mentions Luis Fernando.  

Another great focus in 2024 has been the verification of IMPACT suppliers in the region. We made progress and now have verified farms in Honduras, Guatemala, Peru and Mexico. We’re also working closely with suppliers in Nicaragua, hoping to have many more IMPACT-verified farms very soon. We will continue our efforts to expand in the region during 2025.  

And last but not least, a big effort this year was the opening of our new operations in Guatemala. We are convinced of the potential this country, its people and coffee have, and our new office and team in Guatemala City will enable us to be closer to suppliers in the region and better serve our clients.   

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