Uganda Harvest Update

This article at a glance: 

• Arabica: February/March 2025 harvest up 20-30% from 2024 showing a strong recovery. 
• Robusta: Dry weather led to delayed cherry development and as a result May–July’s crop expectation has been cut to 4 million bags, 10% lower than the previous year; farmers remain motivated however, with cash prices 25-30% higher and strong investment appetite driving demand for farm investments. 
• Sustainability: Sucafina has built nurseries in our own facilities scaling seedling capacity from 40,000 to over 1.5 million to support rejuvenation and expansion in Western Uganda. We’ve launched a farmer financing trail with 44 farmers. 
• Innovation: Anicka Markova, Green Coffee Merchant and Specialty Coffee Researcher is supporting specialty coffee development efforts in Uganda with a small pilot project. 

 Arabica 

Uganda’s 2025 main crop harvest for the South-Western Arabica producing regions is coming towards the last pickings.  It’s estimated that this year’s February/March harvest was up 20-30% compared to last year; a strong recovery, especially as prices paid to farmers were also 30-40% higher on average, mainly thanks to the New York C being 80-100 usc/lb higher than the previous year.  

The availability of fresh (wet) cherry has been very high this year, but it’s nonetheless a little tricky to comment on the overall harvest due to the ‘Drugar’ effect.  

Across the board, global roaster demand for natural-processed coffees from countries other than Brazil was low this year. This is true as well for Drugar (a Western Uganda home-processed natural). This lack of demand for commercial quality naturals (combined with the lower premium that Drugar generally commands) certainly led farmers to deliver a large amount of ‘wet’ (fresh) cherry to wet mills, including the six that Ugacof own and operate in the West. However, Drugar (because it is processed at ‘home’ j) remains a bit of a black box: it’s hard to know if production is truly up as much as it seems or if we are merely seeing a higher percentage of it at the wet mill level.  Nonetheless, in all cases, it's overall good news for growers who will earn around 30% more per kilo of cherry delivered versus what they would have earned selling it dried as Drugar. 

Finally, flowering looks promising so far for the main Arabica crop on the northern hemisphere side of the country (September/October). 

Robusta 

Field Conditions 

The first four months of 2025 have seen a prolonged period of dryness, far lower than 10-year average precipitation, with slightly higher than average temperatures and rainfall down to only around 25% of what would be expected based on the 10-year average. As a result, we have seen delayed cherry development, which has led us to make cuts to our May to July crop estimates. Currently, we expect around 4 million bags (around 10% lower than the previous year). Nonetheless, we still expect a total harvest in October-September 24/25 of 5.3 million bags, as mentioned in our previous update, thanks to a relatively decent harvest of 1.3 million bags for the earlier ‘fly crop’ from October to January. 

Robusta flowering, which takes place generally in March and April, has also suffered due to the persistently dry weather, which creates a flag around the October to February 25/26 harvest. 

Overall, it’s a mixed picture, but fortunately farmers remain motivated, with cash prices paid to farmers 25-30% higher year on year. There are clear signs of strong investment interest; demand for seedlings is huge, and we’re seeing more and more investment in irrigation and new plantations. 

Sustainability 

To help with farmer financing, we took a small but promising step forward by launching a microcredit trial. We partnered with a third party and tested a short-term farmer financing program with 44 farmers in the West, and 70 farmers in central regions, respectively. 

Credit limits were determined based on each farmer’s past transaction data and capacity. This method helps encourage traceability and reward loyalty with a well-priced loan in subsequent periods. 

Even with training in Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) and new access to appropriate credit (short and long term), many farmers that want to invest in their farms face the barrier of inadequate seedling availability. If there are 200,000 Arabica farmers in total in Western Uganda cultivating 120 million trees, there is a massive need for quality seedlings. Sucafina has identified this need and have scaled up our seedling programs by building our own nurseries that we manage. In just a few months, we’ve gone from a seedling capacity of just 40,000 to over 1.5 million per year.  

For registered farmers within our network, this will help with tree rejuvenation and expansion. We need far more of these nurseries, however, to meet the broader need.  

Finally, our Uganda supply chains are EUDR-ready and IMPACT verified coffees area also available for both Arabica and Robusta. 

Special Projects 

Much like last year’s work in Rwanda, the Ugacof team is collaborating with Green Coffee Merchant and Specialty Researcher Anička Marková to explore methods of adding value to our Ugandan coffee offerings. Together, they are experimenting with different processing methods such as anaerobic natural, anaerobic fermentation, lactic fermentation and yeast inoculation across our western washing stations, adapting processes to the unique environmental conditions at each site.  

The collaborative effort between Anička and the Ugacof team aims to add points of differentiation and added value to available specialty coffees and to work towards a more consistent cup profile. In the long run, these experiments could help improve processing, strengthen team expertise, and increase farmer access to higher-value markets. 

If you’re buying specialty Fully washed and Naturals from Western Uganda – please do ask your partner what they are doing around seedling needs. If you are planning to purchase through Sucafina networks, reach out to your trader to see how you can support these efforts.   

Now is the perfect time to connect with your trader to discuss available lots and upcoming offers, with Uganda’s Arabica harvest nearing completion and exciting processing experiments underway.